Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008217 0.009275 0.010434 0.011802 0.013375 0.015132 0.017248
2024-10-20 0.006287 0.007650 0.009276 0.011369 0.014011 0.017254 0.021572
2024-10-27 0.005269 0.006732 0.008575 0.011090 0.014468 0.018895 0.025217
2024-11-03 0.004671 0.006208 0.008233 0.011134 0.015237 0.020922 0.029543
2024-11-10 0.004354 0.005991 0.008237 0.011595 0.016577 0.023834 0.035475
2024-11-17 0.003907 0.005534 0.007840 0.011414 0.016933 0.025328 0.039460
2024-11-24 0.003599 0.005233 0.007623 0.011454 0.017593 0.027323 0.044476
2024-12-01 0.003270 0.004866 0.007263 0.011218 0.017773 0.028547 0.048349
2024-12-08 0.003097 0.004716 0.007212 0.011457 0.018732 0.031146 0.054967
2024-12-15 0.002891 0.004492 0.007022 0.011440 0.019246 0.033026 0.060535
2024-12-22 0.002613 0.004129 0.006573 0.010937 0.018847 0.033220 0.062900
2024-12-29 0.002449 0.003940 0.006393 0.010876 0.019228 0.034875 0.068382
2025-01-05 0.002403 0.003947 0.006553 0.011453 0.020886 0.039235 0.080325
2025-01-12 0.002195 0.003665 0.006190 0.011044 0.020625 0.039809 0.084293
2025-01-19 0.002032 0.003445 0.005918 0.010773 0.020598 0.040844 0.089453
2025-01-26 0.001929 0.003325 0.005816 0.010815 0.021204 0.043278 0.098304
2025-02-02 0.001891 0.003317 0.005916 0.011262 0.022700 0.047848 0.113228
2025-02-09 0.001775 0.003157 0.005717 0.011087 0.022842 0.049396 0.120798
2025-02-16 0.001695 0.003058 0.005627 0.011125 0.023454 0.052112 0.131986
2025-02-23 0.001591 0.002906 0.005422 0.010897 0.023436 0.053311 0.139228
2025-03-02 0.001546 0.002864 0.005429 0.011129 0.024505 0.057332 0.155355
2025-03-09 0.001478 0.002772 0.005329 0.011112 0.024983 0.059926 0.167833
2025-03-16 0.001368 0.002590 0.005031 0.010625 0.024263 0.059301 0.170281